Makai LemonR

PHI · WR · bye 10 · age — · sample: no NFL games yet — prior-based

R — rookie prior. no NFL games yet. Projection comes from historical rookie seasons of players drafted at a similar slot and position (a “draft-slot prior”). Wide range by construction.

Rank #127 overall · WR47 · 13.1 of 17 games expected

Simulated season-total distribution

10,000 simulated 2× PPR outcomes — the bars are how often each point range occurred. Trust the median more than the band width (see methodology).

Percentiles

Projected season total at each percentile (points).

5th	42
10th · floor	93
25th	142
50th · median	186
75th	226
90th · ceiling	257
95th	274

Value over replacement & market

VOR = points above a freely-available WR in a 10-team league.

VOR (median)	-49.2
VOR floor / ceiling	-141.9 / 21.6
Overall / positional rank	#127 · WR47
ADP (proxy)	106.4
Value vs ADP	−20.6

ADP: Fantasy Football Calculator · 2× PPR uses the PPR list as a proxy

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M1c-roles-v0.4.0 · 10,000 sims/player · build 69b6671 · generated 2026-07-24T03:50:47Z · Data: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0)