Quantitative NFL fantasy · 2026
Fantasy rankings that show their work.
Every projection is a full simulated distribution — floor, median, ceiling — built only from real NFL game logs and arithmetic you can audit. Four scoring formats, ranked by value over replacement. No black box, no hot takes.
Backtested 2022–2025 · ~0.73 rank accuracy · 10,000 sims/player · nflverse data
Why trust it
Rigor you can check — and limits we admit.
0.73
Rank accuracy (Spearman), pooled Double-PPR
2022–25
Leakage-safe backtest: predict the past, honestly
100%
Traceable to real games — every number auditable
The honest part most tools hide
Our floor→ceiling bands are still too narrow — in backtests they caught ~43% of outcomes, not 80%. We tell you that, on the methodology page, in plain language — because a projection you can’t interrogate isn’t worth trusting. Trust the order more than the width, and we’ll keep closing the gap in the open.
What you get
Free forever. Premium when you want the whole picture.
Free
- Rankings — all four scoring formats
- Floor / median / ceiling + VOR
- In-row distributions & VOR cliffs
- The full methodology & backtest
Premium
Founding Member
- Every player’s full profile page
- 40-bin distribution + p5–p95 percentiles
- The ADP Value column — where we differ from the market
- Comparable-player analysis (coming)
🔓 Founding access opening soon
Be first through the door.
Founding members get first access at a locked-in rate. Drop your email — we’ll tell you the moment it opens.