Rico DowdleNT

PIT · RB · bye 9 · age 28.2 · sample: 51 games, 2021-2025

NT — new team. 2026 team differs from where this history was produced. The M0 model deliberately does not adjust for the move yet (that arrives in M1); treat with judgment.

Rank #103 overall · RB31 · 15.2 of 17 games expected

Simulated season-total distribution

10,000 simulated 2× PPR outcomes — the bars are how often each point range occurred. Trust the median more than the band width (see methodology).

Percentiles

Projected season total at each percentile (points).

5th	136
10th · floor	148
25th	169
50th · median	193
75th	218
90th · ceiling	242
95th	257

Value over replacement & market

VOR = points above a freely-available RB in a 10-team league.

VOR (median)	-30.3
VOR floor / ceiling	-74.9 / 19.5
Overall / positional rank	#103 · RB31
ADP (proxy)	78.6
Value vs ADP	−24.4

ADP: Fantasy Football Calculator · 2× PPR uses the PPR list as a proxy

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M1c-roles-v0.4.0 · 10,000 sims/player · build 69b6671 · generated 2026-07-24T03:50:47Z · Data: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0)